“I know that every good and excellent thing in the world stands moment by moment on the razor-edge of danger, and must be fought for.”
~ Thornton Wilder, The Skin of Our Teeth
First, a correction to Pt. 1: despite my beautifully presented argument to the contrary, the Twins have decided that Chris Paddack will be the fifth starter to begin the season. To this, I merely sniff defiantly. As I said in the earlier post, this merely delays the inevitable: Paddack will soon be out, and David Festa in. By way of injury or woeful performance, it makes no difference. I assume Paddack will spend a majority of this season hurt, as he has every year since 2019.
Second, this is the third version of this post. The first was underway when the news broke that Royce Lewis would be out for an extended period, and the second way nearly finished when the news broke that Brooks Lee would begin the season IL’d as well. So what follows is reworked from the information and research which went into the first one, including the knowledge which broke today: both Mickey Gasper and DeShawn Keirsey are making the roster, and Austin Martin is not. For the record, I predicted in the first version that Gasper would be the 26th man, and noted in the second that a fifth outfielder would be Keirsey.
I wonder if there is a higher-variance lineup in Major League Baseball than the 2025 Twins.
Can any other team claim such an odd combination of herculean talent with Dionysiac unpredictability? Now, there are teams lacking in any top tier talent: the A’s and White Sox, of course, but also the Rockies, Marlins, and Nationals. And the Cardinals, a one-foot-out-the-door Nolan Arenado notwithstanding. But these teams are what they appear to be: none appear ready to even pretend to approach to threaten to compete for the playoffs, let alone their divisions. The Twins, on the other hand, field a combination of talented youngsters and established veterans, even stars, who paper out as essentially solid, maybe even scary. Pair this with the fact that the Twins play in an incredibly open division with no dominant team, and you’ve got a real prognostication nightmare.
Take those A’s: they are finally, sort of, on the upswing from years of wallowing, and have one almost-star, Brent Rooker, the power-hitting corner-outfielder the Twins traded away because while Rooker could hit home runs, Emilio Pagan could yield even more home runs, and the Twins needed that (besides, they had Trevor Larnach! They were set). And sure, that Lawrence Butler kid looks fun, but let’s be real, what can you expect from a team which enters the season with Shea Langeliers as its third-best player? However, let’s say everything breaks for these A’s: Butler truly becomes a superstar, Rooker rakes, the pitching staff is able, and the youngsters take steps forward. Great: the A’s perhaps break 85 wins. Realistically, this team finishes a few games under .500.
But the Twins field a lineup which, with perfect health and the Names in the lineup producing as they have at their best, is probably a division winner. I would put the absolute ceiling at 93 wins, but that will likely claim the Central with breathing room. The only other team in-division with a ceiling this high is Kansas City, and despite their near-miss with the playoffs last year, I remain convinced that team, as constructed, just isn’t legit. Bobby Witt Jr. is a monster and Cole Ragans a true ace, but are you really going to get 5.4 WAR from Seth Lugo again? What about 3.4 WAR from Michael Wacha? Is Freddy Fermin (.316 OBP) really about to become Buster Posey? MJ Melendez, a.k.a. Kansas City Trevor Larnach, is your third-best hitter, huh?
Why are the Twins so much better, on paper? Consider the non-fringey top-tier talent: Carlos Correa, who is still only 30 even if we talk about him like an old man, is a power-hitting shortstop with elite defensive skills. Royce Lewis, in 2023, slashed .309/.372/.548/.921 and carried the Twins into the playoffs—he has shown his All-Star ceiling. Byron Buxton is a former All-Star who has averaged a 20-20 per 150 games (yes I know I’m talking out my ass, but the point here is to be unrealistic). Heck, Castro was an All-Star last year, and Jeffers would have been if he had timed his scorching 60 games correctly. All projections say Brooks Lee is a future star (not to mention some of the hot talent coming up the pipeline).
No, the Twins absolutely have the potential to scare you, particularly with the power up and down the lineup.
The huge, hulking, William Howard Taft but of course, is health: the Twins are already showing their hand there, with Royce Lewis down with a hamstring strain. A hamstring strain, lest you fret, is a minor ailment which baseball players suffer all the time and no cause for concern. Most players lose a couple weeks to this kind of thing.
Lewis will next appear on the field, I predict, in May.
As I’ve pointed out before, the Twins hate playing their players. They feel this is a hazard to which it would be irresponsible to expose their roster members. A 10 day IL trip, for the Minnesota Twins, usually means a month. Hard as I try, I simply cannot convince myself this is necessary, for nobody else does this. The Twins’ roster management is second-to-all in terms of letting the kids play. They manage IL trips like the Biden White House managed vacation time.
Some teams are not like this. Some teams even—I know this sounds barbaric, but strangely, they care about winning like a lot—allow players to play even if they are less than 100%. You know, like baseball players did back in the bad old days, when most players appeared in 150 games, when starting lineups were predictable and stable. Back before catchers were part time players. Back before we figured out that it’s better to hold players out of the lineup now, because then they will be much healthier in order to play very little in future years as well.
But enough about Buxton! [rimshot] The point is, already the Twins are down their presumed three-hole hitter, and Correa and Buxton might as well have spinning circles over them, “Injury Loading…” So projecting what this lineup will look like at midseason is like trying to predict the seating arrangements at a wedding ten months from now to which nobody has yet received an invitation. Nonetheless, for my tongue-in-cheek attempt, see the end of this post.
Righty Starter Lineup
It is inevitable we must do two versions of the starting lineup, since, to date, my daily prayers for a non-fatal but conveniently debilitating illness which forces early retirement on Rocco Baldelli have so far gone unanswered. This is the Opening Day lineup, by incidence of Sonny Gray being righthanded, and likely represents the majority of games.
Projected Opening Day Lineup
Matt Wallner, RF
Carlos Correa, SS
Ryan Jeffers, C
Byron Buxton, CF
Willi Castro, 2B
Trevor Larnach, LF
Edouard Julien, DH
Ty France, 1B
Jose Miranda, 3B
Rocco has led off Wallner all Spring, and success there bodes well. The Twins are without their default lock for 3rd—in both senses—in Lewis, which presents a problem. Correa has settled into the 2-hole in Rocco’s lineups—when he’s been in them—and that will continue this year, no issues there….but then who bats third? I believe it will be Jeffers, as a sort of vote of confidence. Wallner is the Twins best hitter in camp and would make sense to bat third…if the Twins had any high-OBP players at all to lead off. They really don’t. Buxton only runs like a classic leadoff guy. Julien, whose on-base skill was considered elite in the minors, has not shown it up here since 2023. Castro has middling ability to reach base, but no power. Jeffers’ pop and the line-drive upside we saw briefly last year land him the starring role here, with Byron “Khris Davis” Buxton slotting into the slugger’s role.
Behind Buxton, we have to talk about the Left Field Problem. You see, early in Spring Training, it was reported Rocco saw Castro as the team’s primary left fielder in 2025, which—let it never be said I am unfair—makes sense. Much as I love him, Castro is terrible in center, terrible at third, and woeful at short. The two positions where Castro does the least damage are second, where he defends alright, and left, where he is aided by Buxton’s massive range. As a happy note: the presence of Harrison Bader should preclude Center Field Willi ever returning to the limelight.
Last year at this time, Castro was the default to step in at third when Lewis injured himself on Opening Day—he started there the next game, and mostly filled that spot in April. Brooks Lee was clearly the plan at third, but now he’s out, and Julien has a strong case as the worst defender on the roster (in a related story, Austin Martin is headed to Saint Paul). Julien’s only viable defensive alignment is second, but if you can have Larnach in the lineup, that’s clearly better than the down-ballot alternatives, so Larnach goes to left and Castro comes in to play second. Perhaps when Lee returns we will get to see Willi in left field more.
The lineup continues with Julien, whose upside remains the thing to focus on, even if he’s not shown it in a while. Let’s overlook the cringetastic blooper-reel of called third strikes against him in 2024, and focus on the optimist’s angle: Julien does have traits which lead to a high OBP. If he rebounds to 2023 form with walks and pop, he profiles as the leadoff guy the Twins need. As it is, the power potential probably keeps his bat in the lineup.
Ty France is the mystery—he spent the offseason at Driveline, which often doesn’t help but cannot conclusively be showed to hurt a hitter. Arguably, there was nowhere to go but up, as he was among the least valuable hitters in the sport in ‘24, although still only the third-worst on the Mariners. He now claims 1) he was playing through injury all year, and 2) the Mariners gave him too many damn analytics and it psyched him out at the plate. Also, 3) he didn’t even want to be a good hitter, he could have, he just didn’t care to, So There. Regardless. France’s defense is very poor if defensive statistics are to be believed, so I’d say conclusively we have no idea about his defense. But I find it hard to imagine he’s a worse 1B than Miranda.
…Who benefits the most from the Lee injury. In the second version of this post, I had Lee playing third and batting ninth, but now Miranda is given a golden opportunity with guaranteed playing time. He is the only remaining 3B if Castro is to cover second. Jose gets his shot to write
Lefty Starter Lineup
In the previous version of this post, I wrote:
I predict in 2025 Matt Wallner will mash himself out of his platoon, but we all know how difficult it is so change the mind of the Rocco. The Rocco tends to stick to his beliefs with the tenacity of a leech. Therefore to begin the season, Wallner will be platooned, though again, I predict this will not last. With one more injury, this would become unworkable completely.
Well, what do you know. Lee went down the next day. Yet upon reflection, I even now believe that, as unworkable as it is—you’ll see in a moment, it’s ugly—Rocco will still attempt to construct a lineup without Wallner or Larnach. Mere logic is not about to stop Rocco from following his bliss.
To clarify: before the Lee injury, the Twins were set to break camp with four outfielders, Bader, Buxton, Larnach, and Wallner, plus Castro, see above. Sticking to platoons, the only possible outfield would be Castro-Buxton-Bader. To date, Wallner (.232 OBP) and Larnach (.262) have been pitiful against lefties, but unfortunately, so has Julien (.247). Before Lee went down, this lineup could have avoided all three by putting Castro in left, Miranda at third, and the switch hitter Lee at second.
But with the injuries, the roster’s last two spots suddenly fell into the laps of two guys who, arguably, have no business on a Major League roster: Gasper and Keirsey. Keirsey, the fringiest of fringe roster guys, is lefthanded (and a free-swinger to boot), so he is not the solution to the platoon problem. However, Gasper, star of the spring, can play second, and that frees up Castro to move to left. Which brings us to a patently ridiculous but very likely accurate starting lineup:
Projected Alternative Lineup against LHP
Willi Castro, LF
Carlos Correa, SS
Ryan Jeffers, DH
Byron Buxton, CF
Jose Miranda, 3B
Ty France, 1B
Harrison Bader, RF
Christian Vazquez, C
Mickey Gasper, 2B
Yes, this is a nine-man lineup containing four players whom even the Twins do not consider starting-quality: Miranda, Bader, Vazquez, and Gasper, but it is also constructed entirely of righthanded batters, and that is the controlling factor here. Rocco has spoken with the Beyond, and it informed him that there is nothing—literally, nothing in the world—more important than platooning lefthanded batters.
As constructed right now, the Twins do not have 9 major league hitters at all, period, but this righty lineup is ghastly. Not only does it centerstage two AAA hitters (Gasper and Miranda), it forces us to make use of both catchers on the same day.
And this is not a worst-case scenario: this is the only combination of nine righty bats. There are four bench slots, and four lefties sit there. Perhaps Rocco would go with the unknown and attempt to put Keirsey in the lineup, but the trade off would be one catcher or the other sitting, and do you trust Rocco not to sit Jeffers?
Takeaways, and a Fun Chaser
How does it make you feel that Ty France—Ty France—has perhaps the best job security on the entire team? He will effortlessly hold onto the first base job….probably all season, but at least until all the infielders return. The most direct threat to his hegemony would be if Miranda hits the cover off the ball while Royce is down. Miranda is a dreadful first baseman, but if his bat becomes indispensible and France is doing Ty France things, Miranda could supplant him. Gasper can also supposedly play first, but Gasper’s inevitable early-season success will collapse like the mirage it shall be too soon for Rocco to be tempted.
The best case scenario for these weeks without Lee and Lewis has to be production from Julien—whose Spring has been encouraging, so that’s a bad sign. Desperation could breed some flexibility at some stage: maybe Rocco decides, if only to tread water, someone must no longer be platooned. Faced with the disheartening career outputs of Wallner, Julien, and Larnach, Rocco will probably go with the highest-upside bat, and that is Wallner—though Julien is an infielder, which gives him a leg up when the next injury occurs.
Which brings me to something fun. Presenting the first of its kind Show Up For Work Rankings, in which I rank Twins position players by how likely you are to see them on the field if you show up to any random Twins game throughout the season:
The Show Up For Work Rankings
Willi Castro
Ty France - because the next best thing to ability is inevitability
Matt Wallner - I am a true believer, most starters are righthanded
Ryan Jeffers - will usually DH if not catching
Brooks Lee - versatility keeps him on the field
Harrison Bader - the 4th outfielder plays every day on the Twins!
Carlos Correa - at least for a half
Byron Buxton - ditto
Christian Vazquez - the next best thing to inevitability is being the second catcher
Royce Lewis - the rare, illusive, and tantalizing glimpse
Jose Miranda - will eventually run out of options
Edouard Julien - at this point in the list, you’re playing craps
Mickey Gasper - at this point in the list, you’re playing crap
DaShawn Keirsey - when Lee is activated he will be flushed so fast a phantom image will remain hovering over the bench while a scream fades away