Trying to follow this offseason has felt like one of those election nights when no one is elected until the next morning, and you just spend your entire evening irritably refreshing news feeds even though you said for months coming in that you didn’t care and wouldn’t be paying attention. Except, in this case I’m a political junkey! I want to know!
Thus, the 2023-24 baseball hot stove season. The stove seems less heated than maybe a little warmer than typical. Maybe the cat’s been sitting on it for awhile. Maybe the window threw a sunbeam over it for a couple hours. But it has not been precisely what’d you would necessarily call exactly riveting.
And the Twins have done nothing. Poor Do-Hyoung Park, the MLB Twins correspondent, has resorted to writing pieces with titles like, “Nine internal options for the Twins at right field,” or “this High-A rookie may be poised for a quick rise in 2024.” You feel for the guy. He might as well be tasked with breaking news and developments in the Latin language for the amount of fodder he’s been given. The Twins have made it abundantly clear that they have no intention of being better in 2024 unless by happenstance. They are much more concerned with finding out what kind of TV money they’ll get from Amazon then they are with, say, the center field market. Taking advantage of the widely publicized Diamond Sports bankruptcy, the Twins are content to sit on their hands until the entire free agent pool is picked over, and then late in spring training they will make a few minor pickups that do nothing to improve the team beyond expanding its gene pool. The phrase “warm bodies” will not just be a colloquialism—it will be the most specific information available about the Twins eventual “free agent signings.”
My three paragraphs of bitching completed, I shall now proceed to my topic, which is to provide some comments about the larger signings that have happened this off-season, along with some grades that other sports outlets are too cowardly to include.
Shohei Ohtani → Dodgers | 10 years, $700 million
My long-held belief was that this would not happen, because to my thinking—perhaps I’ve been watching too much football—the Dodgers could not possibly fit another titanic AAV into reasonable bounds. I was right about that. Of course, their solution was to defer an absolutely mind-numbing amount of money into the distant future. I will be touring the mountain with Dante by the time the Dodgers settle their check with that particular eatery. The Butlerian Jihad will see calculators outlawed, and the mentats will rise to replace them just about in time to wrap up the accounting details of Ohtani’s deal (the Dodgers will by that time have assumed their final form as House Harkonnen).
Even the Dodgers themselves, deep down, don’t consider their Fake World Championship in 2020 to be, well, anything but fake. A bit like the Yankees of the late aughts, they feel the embarrassment of decades of leading baseball in payroll and running away with divisions, sans the ultimate prize. And like those Yankees, they see no end in sight but to quadruple down, spending like a Babylonian prince on a day he feels fat. More on this below.
In terms of Ohtani himself, well, the words “right field” are already being thrown around, with the man himself supposedly chill with that. Uh. Huuuuh. Somehow, it feels as though he’s not likely to happily give up the quality that makes him the greatest star in the sport. When he fails to recapture the magic on the mound in 2025, I foresee a dispute. The Dodgers, knowing his best pitching years are already behind him, will begin in earnest to try and get him off the mound—where max-effort will only lead to more injuries—and into the everyday lineup. In complete reversal from how we all originally saw Ohtani when he broke in, it turns out his pitching ability and its attendant risks do not weigh up to his world-destroying bat. He will throw his last pitch in 2026.
Risk Factors: Pitching!
Marriage Status: Shoot Your Shot, Ladies!
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP → Dodgers | 12 yrs, $325M
This one is just laughable to me. This has got to be the most wildly speculative sports contract ever given out. It is a move motivated once again by desperation, and by the overinflated starting pitcher market, but more than anything by confirmation bias. Japanese pitchers do not last. Their shelf life is short. The proximity of obviously outlying Ohtani—and the recent short-term success of Kodai Senga—turned the bidding for Yamamoto absolutely drunk, leading to this wildly ill-advised contract.
The question here isn’t about Japanese pitchers’ effectiveness—clearly, Japanese pitchers can translate to the Majors, far better than Japanese hitters (with due respect to Nori Aoki). The question is about longevity. If we a team wants 30 starts a year, and expects 5 years of production (keeping in mind that 10+ year deals are understood by all parties to be, effectively, 5-7 year deals with hefty backend money), thats 150 games. How many Japanese pitchers have started 150 games since 1990?
Yu Darvish (266)
Kenta Maeda (155)
Masahiro Tanaka (173)
Hiroki Kuroda (211)
Tomo Ohka (178) - if you knew about him, good job, I had never heard of him
Hideo Nomo (318)
That’s not a highlights list, that’s the entire list. In the last two decades, Darvish is a massive outlier to still be pitching effectively at 37. Tanaka, like Yamamoto, was one of the very best pitchers of his generation in NPB, and came over at 25. He was never as good as advertised, and washed out at 32. Maeda enters his 8th season this year, but he is the opposite of Yamamoto—a control craftsman, not a power pitcher. Yamamoto profiles to start strong, but fade quickly. His build and repertoire are similar to Tim Lincecum. If he had Tim Lincecum’s career over the course of this contract (which do not forget, included consecutive Cy Youngs and 2 more top-ten finishes early), would you sign up for this math?
Lincecum’s Career @ Yamamoto’s Pricetag
270 starts, 19.5 WAR …for $325M
$/start: $1.2M
$/WAR: $16.7M per 1.0 WAR - according to this 2022 article, last year the dollar value of 1.0 WAR for pitchers was about $6.9M.
So this contract is ultimately just another symptom of Andrew Friedman’s hell-or-high-water determination to buy a championship in the next three years. Personally, I think Friedman’s ego is wounded—the architect of the Rays’ long-term success left too early to get credit for it, and now does not get credit for the Dodger’s prodigious farm system and many wise moves. Where Brian Cashman’s tenure with the Bombers looks okay from a distance because money covers for mistakes, Friedman is genuinely doing a great job, but his ability is being covered up by his financial resources. So he’s just giving up on looking smart and trying to buy every piece possible to win that elusive World Series.
Likelihood of playing 12 seasons: hahahahahahahaha
Movie Equivalent: Avatar 2 (way too long and soon enough very underwhelming)
Aaron Nola, SP → Phillies | 7 yr, $172M
Aaron Nola’s FIP since his age-25 season is 3.38, which is good, not frontline starter good. But Nola is clearly a frontline starter, and his 1.093 WHIP on the same interval suggests how dominant he has been…at times. His strikeout totals suggest elite stuff, but in his walk year, he gave up 32 home runs. His strikeout rate was above the elite 29% threshold in ‘21 and ‘22, but dropped to 25% this year.
In other words, you could look at the 31-year-old as being in the early stages of decline (though his velocity doesn’t support that)….or that he had a slightly down year, and his rates were hurt by an awful Phillies defense behind him, and he’s bound to bounce back to being one of the five best starters in the league next year. Once again, this deal is not really for seven seasons, it’s for the next three, when the Phillies championship window remains open.
I am extremely tepid on the accomplishments of Dave Dombrowski, but he correctly saw this re-signing as a win-now move while the Harper-Turner-Wheeler core remains steady. In the worst-case scenario, the Phillies still have a Game 1 certified ace in Wheeler. In the best-case, they have an incredible one-two punch for the playoffs.
Striking Resemblance to: Andrew Garfield?!
Wisdom of Signing: Prudent
Sonny Gray, SP → Cardinals | 3 yrs, $75M
I called this one a mile away. Short term but good AAV with a team that values traditional grit. There was never any chance Gray would re-sign with the Twins, even if they had outbid the competition. Gray hated Rocco’s obsessive tinkering and fixation on analytics, which in the long run provided very little advantage (example: we still don’t know if Alex Kiriloff can figure out lefties); even in 2023 when he was frequently allowed to go deeper into games, Gray clearly resented the manager’s chaotic, frequently self-contradictory moves with the pitching staff.
And he walks away a winner—he etched a pretty indelible memory for Twins fans in shutting down the Blue Jays to end the long playoff losing streak. That epic pickoff of Vlad Jr at second was the greatest moment I’ve ever been personally present for at a baseball game. The stadium erupted like I’ve never heard and the Blue Jays just crumbled thereafter. There was one rabid Jays fan a few rows in front of me and off to one side, wearing a $200 Bo Bichette jersey and screaming derision at the Twins through the whole game. He was on his feet prognosticating about the impending Blue Jays rally when Gray whirled and took Guerrero completely by surprise (with help from Correa’s flawless tag). As everyone leaped to their feet in celebration, I glanced down at him, and he was, predictably, swiping his arms “Safe!” even while he craned his neck to see the replay. Then he did, and from 50 feet away, I saw his face collapse in on itself. His arms just fell to his sides, and he literally sank into his seat with his head in his hands. Gray walked off with entrails and blood streaming from his fist, that obnoxious loser’s heart ripped out.
The Cardinals will appreciate Gray’s grit and bulldog mentality in a way the simperingly “advanced” Twins never did, and I’m happy for him. Gray proved in 2023 that he remains an excellent pitcher at 33 despite middling velocity, and I would not be the least bit surprised to see him cash in again after the end of the Cardinals’ deal. Eight home runs allowed in 184 innings is next-level control, and control ages like a fine wine.
Spirit Animal: Honey Badger
Facial Hair: still on back order
Josh Hader, RP → Astros | 5 yrs, $95M
Penny wise or pound foolish? Well, neither, because $19 million a season for a reliever is steep in any Euclidean universe. But for Hader? I’d do it. The Astros saw Kendall Graveman lost to injury and several other key firemen walk away. Typically, the Astros are a next-man-up machine—there is always a cheap replacement for a departing piece all ready to go. They lost something like 200 innings of relief work this offseason. But the Astros felt rather than than 200 innings of good-not-great work from various pieces elevated or signed, they’d like 70 innings of death from the fire god. When the Astros spend real money in free agency, it is always because they see him as a significant upgrade on their (seemingly endless) internal options: Brantley, Verlander, Greinke, Gurriel, etc.
Hader is not just an upgrade, he is a NOS injection. The Astros instantly go from middle of the pack to one of the best bullpens in baseball, with incumbent closer Ryan Pressly, electric Bryan Abreu, and now Hader to deploy in any order out of the backend. Leaving aside a weird 2022 on a cursed team, Hader has been among the most terrifying dominant players in Major League Baseball.
Josh Hader is a Fire God
Career ERA+: 169. But if you omit 2022: 190
Strikeouts per 9: 15.0 (this is the best ratio of any relief pitcher in the Integration Era to appear in 300 or more games)
Hits per 9: 4.9 (once again, the best of any reliever since Integration)
FIP: 2.73 (8th among 175 active relievers with at least 150 appearances)
On active player lists, in just about any category Hader only ranks behind longtime studs like Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, and Kenley Jansen. Unlike them, however, he is 29 and at the peak of his powers.
Hader throws two pitches, and both are doozies. While Felix Bautista and Jhoan Duran overpower hitters with face-melting velocity, Hader essentially throws two breaking pitches: a 96 MPH two-seamer/sinker that fades in to right handers, and an 85 MPH slider that dives. What makes him so devastating is that both pitches break the same direction, but with differing velocity and level, such that it’s almost impossible to tell which one is coming until it’s ten feet from home plate; moreover, they come from the same inscrutable arm slot. Facing Josh Hader is the equivalent of being in a dim room, trying to punch a blindingly fast ninja who’s the same color as the wall behind him, with one eye shut.
With the Fire God, the Astros figure to be less reliant on their rotation to go deep. Anticipate them using him in a hybrid role the way Milwaukee did. He’ll probably throw 60-70 innings, frequently deployed to get six key outs, no matter the time of game. Hang the price, that kind of advantage will keep on rewarding the Astros for years.
Fire God Level: the skyline is aflame
Needs a headband: Yes
Jung Ho Lee, OF → Giants | 6 yrs, $113M
Of course I know nothing personally of Jung Ho, but the track record of KBO hitters in MLB is uninspiring. There are only 4 currently playing, the best of them being Jo Man Choi, who had a 112 OPS+ in 2023. However, to my understanding, Jung Ho Lee is considered the best KBO prospect in quite a while, and the Giants did not wildly overpay for him; an $18.3M AAV will be moderate if he develops into an above-average player. He also clearly filled a need, since the Giants outfield without him projected to entertain the masses with the comedy trio of Blake Sabol, Mike Yastrzemski, and Michael Conforto (two platoons and an injured goon!) in the outfield. Jung Ho profiles as a contact-first hitter in MLB, his recent power numbers unlikely to translate, especially in San Fran’s spacious confines, but he will be stellar outfielder at the very least, and can steal some bases. If he can bat .300 with little power, the Giants will call this a huge win.
Of course, making this move now is a little head-scratching, since the Giants figure to immediately enter a multi-year rebuild—if Lee grows to stardom, he’ll walk into free agency right around the time the Giants are getting good again. Of course its possible to contend that “the Giants had no choice, there’s rarely a young potential star just sitting there to be signed, and he was available now!” That does not change the fact that the Giants are signing him to star on a bad team. If Farhan Zaidi thought he was making a win-now move, that this was the one missing piece to bring the team back to contention for years to come, frankly, I would like a hit of what he’s smoking.
Actual Nickname: Grandson of the Wind
Other Name Permutations: Jung Lee Ho, Ho Lee Jung, Lee Jung Ho
Eduardo Rodriguez → Diamondbacks | 4 yrs, $80M
There are people who look at Eduardo Rodriguez and see a sneaky ace. All of these people apparently work in the DBacks front office, because I’ve never met one anywhere out in the world. I just don’t get this. E-Rod is nothing special. His big walk year looked like this:
2023, age 30: 26 starts, 152 IP, 143 K / 48 BB, 1.153 WHIP, 134 ERA+
Whistle. Now that’s a pitcher. He was worth 3.5 WAR if you believe BRef, but I don’t. He didn’t even eat innings all that impressively; 55 pitchers threw more. He allowed a lot of baserunners, though only giving up 15 home runs, which helped his rate stats a lot. On a playoff team, he measures up as a third starter. Yet they paid him $20M per season for his age 31-35 seasons. Players making similar money: Joe Musgrove and Charlie Morton are making $20M. Luis Castillo, Kevin Gausman, and Robbie Ray make 21-23M. All of these guys exhibit much higher ceilings than E-Rod.
For another team, the overpay wouldn’t be so bad, but the Snakes are a small-payroll team, and moreover, they didn’t need to do this! They have two young, cost-controlled starters in Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but both will hit free agency in the next two years. Gallen will break the bank, and so will Kelly if he continues his level from 2023. It was already going to be tricky to extend Gallen, and the DBacks must consider themselves to be in a championship window. They’ve now tied a healthy chunk of payroll to an aging middle-of-the-rotation guy for 4 years…right at the time when they will need to extend their core and bring in veteran bats to push for October. Their needs were clear, and a third starter at this price tag should not have been high on the list.
Actual Market Value: like 2 years and $28 million
Low Bar Award: ace of the staff for the 2023 Detroit Tigers
Mitch Garver → Mariners | 2 yrs, $24M
I liked this signing for the pale, fainting, princess-like Mariners lineup, which outside of Julio and brawny Cal Raleigh has the same approximate power potential as a wind farm on Pluto. Garver has two big selling points for them: he can put the ball in the seats (if the pitcher is right handed) and he can occasionally catch, freeing up the DH when Raleigh rests. Now, he’s an objectively bad catcher, but he is one, and that’s one less automatic out in the lineup on those days.
As an aside, the Mariners can’t be done here. They need another bat, badly, but this is a good start.
His 2023 season was spent the same way his 2024 season will be spent: as a heavily platooned DH. Garver hit all 19 of his home runs off righties, and managed a .370 OBP, which you’d definitely take, if only he could do that all the time. Oddly, in the 64 plate appearances he did log against lefties, he actually had good stats: .344/.500/.938; while this is likely the Rangers picking all the right spots for him, it’s an encouraging sign maybe he can be in the lineup against them, sometimes. Garver of course played an important part in the Rangers run, in the sense that he went 2/19 with six strikeouts in the World Series, though he did hit a 3-run blast. Garver strikes out a lot, but also gets on base a lot. This deal will turn into a brilliant scoop by Dipoto if the Mariners let him rip and he maintains these numbers across 500 ABs—25 home runs with that strikeout rate would be good eatin.’
Protruding Eyeballs: Yes
Skill / Handsomeness Ratio: 0.94
Additional Free Agents and Destinations
Blake Snell, SP - there is a strange lack of overlap in his market between teams that would want him and teams that could meet his $30M/year demands. Nothing about Snell is normal; you wouldn’t typically think twice about paying big bucks to the newly minted CYA winner. But it is a fact that he has Qualified only twice in his career. He may have to settle for 3 years and $100M+, not the 10 and 300 he no doubt wants.
Jordan Montgomery, SP - deserves a lucrative 3-year deal. Baltimore makes some sense. If he gets the same money as Eduardo Rodriguez, I will be hopping mad.
Cody Bellinger, OF - I’m very confused why this guy is still sitting here. A dozen contenders need him.
Matt Chapman, 3B - the best infielder on the market did not light it up in his walk year. Many teams could upgrade at third, but the obvious team would be the Mariners, who need pop and need a third baseman. With a projected payroll of only $118 million, I don’t see what’s stopping them.
Tim Anderson, SS - surprisingly, not many teams are in search of a high-average everyday shortstop. He may make some sense as a buy-low 2 year deal with the Rays, who appear likely to be out one $180 million shortstop very soon.
Clayton Kershaw, SP - not a real free agent, doesn’t want to go anywhere. He’ll re-sign with the Dodgers or skip to his hometown Rangers for below market value.
Jorge Soler, DH - Again, the Mariners should be willing to pay for this bat. So should the Twins. He can be had on a 1-year deal.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B - Also this one. He would take a prove-it deal, and would make sense as an affordable upgrade for the Brewers or Guardians.